In today’s cricket world, where opinions are often cautious, Herschelle Gibbs is known for his strong views on the game. However, when asked about the Champions Trophy semifinal between New Zealand and South Africa in Lahore, he hesitated and simply said, “There’s not much to differentiate between them.”
Gibbs was commenting casually while preparing for a gym session in Cape Town, not in a formal analytical setting. Yet, even in such informal moments, he usually offers sharp, uncensored opinions. His hesitation this time underlines just how closely matched these two teams appear to be.
If even a keen observer like Gibbs finds it hard to pick a favorite, it shows the challenge for everyone else trying to predict the match outcome.
Even their recent travel has been similar. New Zealand arrived in Lahore on Monday after playing India in Dubai on Sunday. Dubai was chosen as a neutral venue for India, the only team in the tournament not playing in Pakistan.
South Africa and Australia were also in Dubai. India’s win against New Zealand meant South Africa would now play in Lahore. After spending 18 hours in Dubai without playing or training, South Africa traveled to Lahore on Monday.
It might feel like a while since New Zealand and South Africa last played an ODI, but their last match was just 24 days prior to Wednesday’s game. Interestingly, that previous match was also at the same venue.
New Zealand won that Tri-Nations match by six wickets, with eight balls remaining. However, South Africa’s team for Wednesday’s game will be significantly different. Only four players from their 13-man squad in the previous match are in the current Champions Trophy squad. In contrast, Kyle Jamieson is the only new player in New Zealand’s current squad compared to last month.
This difference in squad composition is a notable point. Another is South Africa’s recent form: they are coming into this match with two wins, against Afghanistan and England, after losing their three previous ODIs.
New Zealand’s loss to India on Sunday was their first defeat in their last five matches in this format. In the Champions Trophy, they have wins against Pakistan and Bangladesh.
However, the similarities are striking. Both New Zealand and South Africa have each scored over 300 runs once in this tournament, both times in Karachi. They each have a batsman in the top 10 run-scorers (Tom Latham and Ryan Rickelton). New Zealand has more bowlers in the top 10 wicket-takers, while South Africa has more in the top economy rates, indicating balanced strengths.
Gibbs’s assessment of the teams being closely matched is intuitive and doesn’t require deep statistical analysis. It’s clear without detailed numbers that these two teams are very evenly matched.
Match Details:
Date: March 5, 2025
Time: 2:00 PM Local Time
Location: Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore
Weather Forecast: No rain expected, high of 23 degrees Celsius. Expect a high-scoring game, as Lahore has seen many high totals in the tournament.
Team News:
New Zealand: Nathan Smith might be preferred over Kyle Jamieson for his better batting.
Probable XI: Will Young, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Rachin Ravindra, Tom Latham (wk), Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner (capt), Nathan Smith, Matt Henry, Will O’Rourke
South Africa: Aiden Markram is fit to play. George Linde will join as a traveling reserve.
Probable XI: Ryan Rickelton, Temba Bavuma (capt), Rassie van der Dussen, Aiden Markram Heinrich Klaasen (wk), David Miller, Marco Jansen, Wiaan Mulder, Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi
Interesting Facts:
* South Africa is the only nation to reach the knockout stage in the last seven ICC tournaments across all age groups and genders.
* New Zealand has won both knockout matches against South Africa in men’s cricket World Cups (2011 and 2015).
* Both teams have won this trophy previously, South Africa in 1998 and New Zealand in 2000 (when it was called the ICC Knockout).
Quotes:
“Scheduling is challenging with the packed international and franchise calendars, and ICC events.” – Mitchell Santner on scheduling issues.
“Dubai trip was logistically inefficient but enjoyable. Some players enjoyed golf and sightseeing. It wasn’t necessary but we adapted and won’t use it as an excuse for preparation.” – Temba Bavuma on their Dubai visit.
